Why bother writing about a game show? Well, because the game show is so inanely simple that it got my attention. And maybe, just maybe there is more to the game than just picking suitcases and accepting a deal. Maybe the game is all about timing and not entirely luck.

I am not going to explain the game, if you have not tuned into NBC to watch this show by now, then you are living without a TV or not at all up on pop culture. To summarize though, people pick cases with dollar amounts in them from $.01 to $1,000,000. They pick a case that is “theirs” and as the game progresses the Banker tries to buy that case from the player and thus maybe settle the proposition for less than what is in the case. The player wants the opposite, higher and higher offers, or with luck, going all the way and winning a million dollars.

OK, it seems simple, a random set of cases and a random set of “picks”. But there is more to the game than that if you look at it. This is a game of information too, sort of like Blackjack, it is a game that can be beat. Why? Well even thought the cases are set up in a random fashion, as they open cases we learn what the remaining cases look like. Just as in Blackjack where a player who is counting can increase and decrease bets depending on the remaining cards in the deck to either safeguard his money or increase it in favorable situations, we have here a similar situation as to when to stop and take the money or when to push your luck and make more. This is the first element to understanding the deeper game.

The game has a bit of a wild card however, and that is “the Banker”. This is the character that gives the players the offers to buy the case that the player picked. How the Banker gets to the offer is a matter of a bit of math called derivatives. Simply put in this case, add up all the amounts of the remaining cases, then divide by the number remaining and you get a derived average. This number is the absolute fair amount that the Banker should offer for the spot you are in the game. Usually the Banker will round off to the nearest $1,000 but there is more here too. The Banker then adds an element of psychology and will either “Low Ball” or once in a while “High Ball” the offers depending on how the player is thinking which is usually out loud.

Just so you know, if the Banker were to give an offer right after the player picks the case, a fair offer would be about $130,000 dollars, but the offer after the first round rarely goes above $30,000, thus the Banker is “Low Balling” the offer to egg on the game. If the offer for the first round were not low balled and right on fair, too many people would take the first offer and go home because it could be an offer up to about $145,000. So, the first few offers are usually low balled. Besides, the number of $130,000 is in the “Risk Aversion” range which is another element to the game.

So the game starts out with the Banker low balling the offers to get the game rolling, but it does not always stay that way. Lets just say that a player after a few rounds does well and wipes out most of the low possible amounts and only a couple of the giant six digit amounts. Well, things start happening at this point and the Bankers job becomes more critical. Remember the Banker wants to get you to take an offer lower that what is in your case. As he game balances on the high side it behooves the Banker to Highball the offer to entice the players to take the deal. Here is where the game gets tricky, do you take the great offer of risk what is in your case. In other words, what is your “Risk Aversion” level. When the offer gets to a certain level people start thinking about their risk aversion, that point where the money is too good to pass up. For most people that number is any six digit offer. When you get into this range, this is where the head games come into play and a set of guidelines on how to play it become useful. (I find that it is interesting that the aversion level is about where the game starts out, and any deal over the $130,000 level is a good deal, not what you happen to have in your case.)

But when you think about it, the game is rigged to a lower amount. If the game were totally fair the average winnings would be $500,000. Why, well $.01 + $1,000,000 rounds to $500,000 and thus a totally equitable game, but that is not where the games averages. So, the house is against you simply from the amounts in the cases. OK, we can live with that, but you should know you are playing a loosing game. Once you know where the starting derivative is, you see that the first 21 cases are ALL beneath the $130,000 staring average. What does that mean? It means you only have a 5 in 26 (about 1 in 5) chance of getting a case better than the average. Opps, not really good odds after all. So it is shear luck after all? Well, yes and no.

So we have the following factors in how to play the game. The first is the idea of knowing the remaining amounts and judging when to quit. The second is your level of risk aversion, and how much intestinal fortitude you have. Third, the odds are very much against you. My job, formulate a set of rules that will allow you to get as much out of the game safely and above the average of $130.000.

Rule One: Watch the large amounts. If you loose 4 of the 5 large amounts, give up and go with your gut because you are not going to hit $130,000.

Rule Two: Do not make a deal while you have at least two of the large amounts. This is the most important rule you have.

(Why? Well the idea on the show is called a safety net and they are correct, especially when you get to the point of opening one case at a time. The idea here is that you can loose one big amount while still maintaining a decent bank offer. Even if you have the big one in your case (which you will not know unless everything except the big amounts have been picked.) Your best off taking the offer than going all the way. Remember, the odds of you picking one of the big amounts was roughly 1 in 5 and 1 in 26 for the million. So, if you have a choice between a small amount and large amount, take the offer.)

Rule Three: Any offer over $260,000 should be seriously considered unless your board includes two remaining large amounts including or over $500,000.

Rule Four: Follow your instincts. Do you honestly think you have a huge amount in your case? If so, follow your instincts because in the end, it is the only way of getting the million. If you are left with $1.00, $500 and $1,000,000, personally I would take the risk of a now (technically) one in three chance at a million. It goes against rule two, but maybe there is something to be said about a “Once in a Lifetime Chance”.

So why do they do it this way? Well let’s see… if everyone were to go all the way regardless of what the board says, only 5 of every 26 players would be a winner and the game would be boring. This is a game of “Risk Aversion” and the fun part is to watch that battle in the players between risk and greed. If the rules above are not followed, you can be pretty sure the player is being greedy. This can be fun, even if Howie Mandel characterizes the actions as “gambling” or “Once in a Lifetime”. And ultimately this is why we watch it, we want to see how greed takes down a player from an offer of $300,000 to finally getting only $1.00. Now that is fun for us, heart wrenching for the players, pure ratings points for the show.

Some interesting things I would like to see….

The Beginning Bale Out: Open the case when picked and take half of the amount. Interesting offer, good for the bank. Also, if the player is one the is all huggy/kissy, Howie would apprieciate the chance at getting rid of those players early. In fact, this could be a “Howie Special” and he can choose to offer it when he feels like it.

Mid Game Bale Out: After a few rounds if the board is against the player, (say no or only one huge amount left) the banker offers a “Take what is in your case at double or nothing.” This is again a good bet for the bank, but could have a rare spectacular result. Also, this would end “looser” games faster since they tend to be boring.

The Wild Card: Add a twenty-seventh case and the offer in it is “Pick any case and go home”. Again, this could have a fun result. (When the case is picked it is either acted on or not but the player picks again. If it is picked and in the players case, a new set of case comes out and they pick one case from a fresh lot and go home with that.)

Take a Peek: What this does is it lets the player peek at what is in his case and exchange it for what is in the “Peek” case. Slightly bumps up the odds in favor of the player, but then again could hurt too. The player if they turns down the swap, he then immediately takes what is in his case.