Up until last night I had never seen ANYBODY pick the $1,000,000 case, and last night it happened, TWICE. Two people picked the $1,000,000 case in one show. What were the odds? Simple, the odds of this happening were 676:1, AGAINST.

So, knowing now what we know and have speculated about in the last article, what do you think the results were? Did either one of the people walk away with the million? At least they walked away with lots of money, right? They were above average for sure, after all, they had the million in their cases, so they hit the average for sure, right? Nope, both players we highly “Risk Adverse” and bailed out early. In the case of Mister “Gung Ho” army, who was so sure he had the $1,000,000 – he ended his run with a mere $99,000. Then there was the poor bagpipe maker, totally broke and without even a bed, he stopped at a pitiful $81,000 with the million in his case. So, what does this show us…

Let’s look carefully at the two games, for surely we can learn something.

Mr. Army was a nice guy, patriotic, gung ho, and full of spite and vinegar for a man in his 70’s. He started out ok, picked one high amount in the first six (right in line with the odds) and then got a great offer from the bank, but of course, no one takes the first offer because everyone knows that the first offer is low balled. He continued, picked five more cases and two more large amounts came off the board, but he still had the $1,000,000 of course and I believe $200,000 and $300,000. He was in good shape and the offer was huge at over $130,000. For whatever reason the banker highballed him early and he turned it down. OK, I buy that. Next round he knocked out the $300,000 and then his wife chimed in when the offer from the banker came in at $99,000; He took the deal. With two large amounts left, he took the deal and ended what could have been a good run. Then came the “Was it a good deal?” part of the show where Howie goes through the remaining case to see if you made a good deal. Turns out, had he continued to play, he could have walked away with $230,000 had he used my system. One the other hand, Mr. “I’m so sure I have the million”, would have won the million had he stuck to his convictions. Here is the thing though, top offer from the bank came to over $500,000 as it has to, he could have gone this far and really racked it up. Then of course, had he stayed all the way, $1,000,000 would have been his. If he got out when I said, there were 5 cases left, maybe he should then have risked it.

Bagpipe Man was even worst, and by the second round he took the money at $81,000. Again they played it out, and had he stayed in using my play would have walked away with $201,000, a bit better than what he got. But let’s remember where he is coming from, he is totally broke, and $81,000 is a huge amount to him. His risk aversion level was WAY lower than most peoples. In his eyes he was making a lot of money. But then again, he left with three huge amounts on the board. This was a stupid time to bail, but bail he did.

In the case of Mr. A I think that had he played the game right he would have asked himself, do I take a 1 in 5 chance at a million? In the case of Mr. B the same question but 1 in 6 chance at a million. This sets the stage for some interesting thought, what level of money would you risk for a chance at $1,000,000. Maybe there should be a new rule:

Rule Five (proposed): Ask yourself the question, at what point would you risk a chance for a million? 1 in 7? 1 in 5? 1 in 3? If you meet or surpass the odds you have placed for yourself, then commit and go all the way regardless the outcome.

If you hit it, you hit and you’re financially well off. If you miss at least you can say you had the guts to go all the way which very few contestants actually do. If you loose, you can say you had fun, hopefully mean it, and consider it a nice mini-vacation on NBC.

Personally in both cases I would have baled out when my system said to bale because I think for me a 1 in 4 chance never would have happened. So, I too would have not been a million dollar winner, but I would have walked away with more than the two did last night.

Last night was a classic case of how the banker plays the risk adverse. He pegged them, especially Mr. A. The offer of $99,000 was aimed right at the wife and he, being a good husband, listened and totally blew him out of the water. As for Mr. B there was no way of knowing he would be THAT risk adverse, but the offer was right on based on for how he was acting. I would say, last night we had the opportunity for two winners, but the bank bluffed it just right and shot them down.

This game has now officially gotten interesting.